Uncertainty
- Capriciousness
- Doubtfulness
- Dubiousness
- Indecisiveness
- Irresolution
- Unpredictability
- Mutability
- Hesitation
- Vacillation
- Dependence on uncertainty
- Vicissitude
Nature
Uncertainty has three varieties: Probability, Ambiguity, and Vagueness. (Vagueness and Ambiguity are often used interchangeably but are different in meaning).
- Probability is uncertainty about whether something is true or whether an event will happen. A juror may think that the defendant probably is guilty, but still not be sure. The weather forecast may state that it probably won’t rain tomorrow, but that is no guarantee that it certainly won't rain.
- Ambiguity refers to distinct possible states. So, "hot food" without any further explanation, could mean high temperature, or spicy or even that it’s stolen or trending.
- Vagueness, on the other hand, refers to an interval on some sort of quantitative dimension. If a recipe says it will take 30 to 40 minutes to prepare a meal, it is being vague about actually how long that will take.
Background
Uncertainty is one of the basic psychological conditions obstructing decision-making at individual, organizational, governmental and intergovernmental levels. It is not the same as ignorance. While the human organism copes with uncertainty on an instinctual level, it has much greater difficulty in dealing with it in deliberative processes. The mathematical and statistical approaches to problem-solving involving probability theory are too recondite to find application in personal or official life. However, heuristic exploratory problem-solving with self-educating systems features such as feed-back, while familiar to science, can have a ready application to decision-making amid uncertainty. Unfortunately, human dialogue up to the level of intergovernmental deliberation and debate, faced with uncertainties, leads to 'leap into the dark' decisions or decisions to postpone decision-making, and little use is made of feed-back and other heuristic techniques, or of systems approaches to accelerate pragmatic, action-oriented proposals, resolutions and implementations in the world agenda.
Incidence
Varying probabilities for events to happen, and ranges of error in human reasoned judgements, make outcomes uncertain. In scientific endeavour, all critical conditions must be fulfilled for certainty, presupposing exact and demonstrable knowledge of causes. By definition, this makes most science uncertain.
Claim
Uncertainty and unpredictability have become significant factors in international economic relations. It is often uncertainty, together with insecurity, that engenders international conflict.
Counter-claim
The 'uncertainty principle' or 'principle of indeterminacy' discovered by W Heisenberg states that the position and velocity of an object cannot be measured accurately at the same time. Only for the exceedingly small masses of atoms and subatomic particles does the product of the uncertainties become significant for research purposes. Nevertheless, for practical purposes the uncertain coordinate of velocity with position for the atom does not prevent its splitting to release nuclear energy. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics has nothing to do with knowledge or action on the human level. However insofar as this principle illustrates the meaninglessness in nature of a concept of theoretical exact simultaneous knowledge of object position and location, it raises epistemological questions as to the basis for action which also were discussed by Plato, Aristotle and other philosophers. Chief amongst these are the idealists who fall into solipsistic and other subjectivist errors of divorcing philosophy from life with the view that all knowledge is uncertain, therefore the only logical action is to think and refrain from action, or more logically, to refrain from acting and thinking. The problem can perhaps be restated. Knowledge is certain in terms of its eventuality. Complete knowledge is unachievable. The level of knowledge must be determined that is appropriate to specific actions. For example, relief operations need not be delayed until a count of casualties is made; and justice need not require all the evidence, only a sufficiency. There are also signs which may not be certain but are indicative: for example, when dark clouds gather rain is expected; or when a country militarizes aggression may be anticipated. Thus action may be based on uncertain but probable knowledge; reasonable certainty.
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