Patterns & Metaphors
Statistical indicators
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Ratios, percentages, medians, frequencies and other statistical forms of presentation may be used to characterize social, economic, and demographic facts. Such statistical indicators may be based on sampling or on census data and may be extrapolated into trend analyses. Indicators are so-called because they often are measures of changes from previous periods (or comparable methods of calculation) and provide instantaneous straight-line forecasts for the short-term. When proven reliable, statistical indicators (especially those based on sampling) provide a current system of detection of unwanted change and an oportunity to take corrective action. Reliance on indicators however can be misleading, particularly in the intricacies of national economic modelling and in all long-range planning. Macroeconomic indicators are mirorred on a smaller scale in corporate financial and operating actual-versus-budget variance analysis. Here too analytic complexity due to a large number of variables is aggravated by statistical uncertainty for the same reason. Basing themselves on indicators, both corporate and national forecasters have a lower accuracy than weathermen.
