Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be a function of global energy demand, and the rate of development and introduction of carbon-free and low carbon energy technologies. Several variables make predictions of future emissions uncertain: economic growth rates, energy prices, the adoption of effective energy policies and the development of efficient industrial technologies. Meeting the targets for emission reductions agreed at Kyoto, itself a formidable challenge for some countries, is only a first step in bringing under control what is generally agreed to be the most critical environmental problem that the world faces. But even meeting all the targets agreed at Kyoto will have an insignificant effect on the stabilization levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The US government prediction in 2002 was that that US production of greenhouse gases will rise 43 percent by 2020.

An OECD paper (2002) reveals that OECD countries subsidise the emission of global warming gases by $57bn - almost exactly what the report estimates it would cost to meet international targets. The paper suggests that investing the money in reducing climate change emissions would have next to no effect on the global economy. Through the provision of subsidies on fossil fuels governments are effectively subsidising pollution and global warming as more than 60% of all subsidies flow to oil, coal and gas.