Using scenario planning

Scenario analysis is a technique for exploring the future. By investigating and comparing the outcomes to which different scenarios lead, it is possible to assess current and alternative policies.

Scenarios are tools for investigating the future. Unlike forecasts, which impose patterns extrapolated from the past onto the future, scenarios are plausible, pertinent 'stories' that are concerned more with the process of strategic thinking than with actually formulating a specific strategic plan.

New quantitative analysis of global environmental scenarios has explored the implications of the conventional development or 'business-as-usual' scenario in more detail.