Technological forecasting

Technology denotes the broad area of purposeful application of the contents of the physical, life, and behavioural sciences. It comprises the entire notion of technics as well as the medical, agricultural, management and other fields with their total hardware and software contents. Technological forecasting is then a probabilistic assessment, on a relatively high confidence level, of future technology transfer.

Technology forecasting is a quantified prediction of the timing, the character, and the extent of change among technical parameters as well as all attributes associated with design, production, and the use of materials and processes, according to a structured system of reasoning. The prediction may or may not include an estimate of probability or confidence in the amount of change or its timing. In some cases, relative need or usefulness can be quantified and used as the basis of the forecasting procedure. The key distinction of this definition is that the forecast is reproducible through a system of logic. Thus, it differs from opinion and prophecy in that it rests upon an explicit, stated set of relationships, data, and assumptions. The procedure yields relatively consistent results regardless of who is doing the analysis.