A significant development of the post-[General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade] (GATT) global economy is the emergence of two scenarios: (1) In this scenario, continued growth in world trade will allow food- deficit countries in the South to produce and export industrial goods and services that should enable them to purchase significant quantities of food from the food-surplus countries of the North. Many of these rich developed countries have considerable unused production potential, given their technological expertise and their marketing infrastructures. These intensive production methods are being adapted to meet modern requirements of sustainable development. For this food to reach the food-insecure in poor countries, the development of effective national food security policies will be required. These must ensure higher food entitlements for both the rural and urban poor through wider access to food made possible by income generation and employment. (2) The second scenario, thought by many analysts to be more realistic, suggests that poor countries of the South must increase their own food production significantly and in such a way that it specifically alleviates food insecurity. Towards this end, a number of mechanisms may be invoked: (i) increased agricultural research and development efforts aimed at increasing productivity per hectare of land and unit of labour; improved extension services, through governmental and non-governmental channels, that will enable all farmers to use the results of research and reap the benefits from technological advances; and (ii) improved infrastructural and socio-economic arrangements, including enabling policies (e.g. fiscal policies, land tenure policies, good governance, popular participation, suitable credit schemes and institution-building) that will allow all sections of the community to sustain the increased production.
2. The experiences accumulated through general development studies and observations of the older green revolution strongly suggest that more general market forces and government market actions override technological packages. Technology alone cannot secure the production of food or access to it, nor can policies alone achieve this. The adoption of available technology largely depends on the incentives farmers perceive from them, and incentives are closely linked to markets.