strategy
Developing scenarios for population growth
Synonyms:
Generating population scenariosPredicting population change
Description:
Translating alternative assumptions about the factors affecting population change -- fertility, mortality and migration -- into projections of future population size. Context:
Scientists working in ecology, climatology, hydrology, agriculture, energy and other fields increasingly demand long-term population figures that explicitly address the issue of uncertainty. Their scenario analyses are becoming more sophisticated; often they are more interested in the boundaries of future world population rather than a best guess. Moreover consideration of alternative population scenarios is essential in the design of robust policy options. Claim:
1. Population growth is one of the most controversial issues of our time; almost everyone agrees that it affects environmental, economic and political stability, both globally and regionally, but there is little consensus on what, if anything, should be done about it.2. We know the approximate number of future parents. What we do not know is the number of hildren that they are going to have.
Broader:
Sustaining growthSocial forecastingUsing scenario planningArticulating future visionStrengthening research on population, environment and development interactionsStrategic population planning Facilitates:
Advancing family planningReducing population growthDeveloping international environmental policyIncreasing awareness of population controlIntegrating international policy Facilitated by:
Documenting population trendsStandardizing national census dataAssessing earth's carrying capacity Organizations:
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis United Nations Commission on Population and Development International Bank for Reconstruction and Development United Nations Population Fund Subjects:
Biosciences → GrowthSociology → Population
Development → Development
Policy-making → Future
Type Classification:
D: Detailed strategies Related UN Sustainable Development Goals:
