Moderating immigration overload Reducing number of immigrants Reducing immigration overload
The European Commission proposed 5-7 year curbs for Central and Eastern European job-seekers in 2001 to allay fears of mass immigration, especially in Germany and Austria. The two Member States are expected to receive 80 percent of Eastern European workers eastwards enlargement. The Commission estimates that in total 3.9 million Central and Eastern Europeans are expected to migrate to the present EU Member States over a period of 30 years. However, several German studies come to contradictory conclusions concerning possible migration from East to West. The Munich-based Institute for Economic Research (IFO) projects an inflow of up to 4 million immigrants from Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic into Germany in the first 15 years after enlargement. The Bonn Institute for the future of work (IZA) forecasts that up to 6 million Eastern European will migrate to Germany, while the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) foresees 2 million Eastern European immigrants.
Closing off the German labour market to Eastern Europeans may result in shifting of certain labour intensive industries from West to East, causing the loss of jobs in Germany. Eastern Europeans are looking for niches in the German labour market that Germans do not want to fill anymore.
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