The proliferation of missiles is accelerating in the third world. UK and French plans are to expand their arsenals; cuts in the Chinese arsenal are considered unlikely. The UK, for one, is moving its strategic orientation away from Russia and back to the rest of the world. As an example, it is likely that some Trident missiles would be armed with single low-yield warheads to make them usable in "shot across the bow" operations in a nuclear crisis with a power like in the Middle East.
2. Nuclear deterrence still has an important contribution to make in insuring against the re-emergence of major strategic military threats, in preventing nuclear coercion, and in preserving peace and stability.