The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's figures for the end of 1982, indicate that the strategic nuclear weapon delivery capability for the USA is 1,264 nuclear bombs and 2,224 nuclear missiles (land, sea and air to air). For the USSR, the figures were 290 nuclear bombs and 6,366 nuclear missiles of all strategic types. The delivery capability is based on a single mission for delivery vehicles such as bombers and submarines; and on current strategic missile deployment. Nuclear weapon stockpiles are much larger, however. Various estimates place these at about 30,400 for the USA; 940 for China; 720 for France and 680 for the UK (one source has 1,700 for the UK). These include strategic, theatre and tactical weapons.
With the signing of the [Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty] (START-1 and 2), the next decade promises to see a 70% reduction in the number of nuclear warheads in the world. The elimination of ground-based multiple warhead missiles has substantially defused the nuclear arms race by removing fear of a nuclear first strike. The USA and Russia have concluded 16 bilateral agreements providing for greater transparency and greater security. However it was estimated in 1993 that approximately 20,000 nuclear warheads, including non-strategic nuclear weapons, would still remain by the year 2003 -- still enough to annihilate all life on earth. The UK and France were planning to expand their arsenals and cuts in the Chinese arsenal were considered unlikely.
It is not in Europe, but in third world that the proliferation of missiles is accelerating, and their threat to regional stability and international security is the most profound. The UK, for one is moving its strategic orientation away from Russia and back to the rest of the world. As an example, it is likely that some Trident missiles would be armed with single low-yield warheads to make them usable in "shot across the bow" operations in a nuclear crisis with a power like in the Middle East. The USA is also taking the view that the nuclear crisis is far from over. Even though the huge overkill of nuclear arsenals can now be curbed, it is believed that Russia's 1993 moratorium on nuclear testing is an embarrassment to the Americans, whose testing programme continues full tilt (including precision low-yield warheads). It was suggested that Mr Bush was putting Mr Yeltsin under pressure to resume the Russian test programme in order to give his own more legitimacy.
2. Despite the seeming end of dramatic confrontation between eastern and western nations, the threat of nuclear proliferation remains, as nations once under heavier surveillance have more freedom to deal in nuclear arms.
3. The long-term effect of the deployment of MIRVs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle) and ABM (anti-ballistic missile) systems will be to erode the strategic balance which exists between the superpowers, creating an environment of uncertainty in which neither side can know the strength of the other's strategic forces, increasing the threat of general nuclear war, and making arms control and disarmament measures very difficult, if not impossible, to negotiate.
2. Vilifying nuclear weapons is fashionable. Many believe they are a major source of tension between states and that their deterrent value is quite limited. Given these beliefs and the horrible consequences of nuclear war, it is hardly surprising that many people want to rid the world of these weapons. This view of nuclear weapons is simplistic. Given the risk of coercive non-proliferation, there is a need to adjust to a world in which increasing numbers of current democratic nations acquire nuclear weapons capability.