Problem

Uncertainty


Experimental visualization of narrower problems
Other Names:
Capriciousness
Doubtfulness
Dubiousness
Indecisiveness
Irresolution
Unpredictability
Mutability
Hesitation
Vacillation
Dependence on uncertainty
Vicissitude
Nature:

Varying probabilities for events to happen, and ranges of error in human reasoned judgements, make outcomes uncertain. In science, all critical conditions must be fulfilled for certainty, presupposing exact and demonstrable knowledge of causes.

Background:

Uncertainty is one of the basic psychological conditions obstructing decision-making at individual, organizational, governmental and intergovernmental levels. It is not the same as ignorance. While the human organism copes with uncertainty on an instinctual level, it has much greater difficulty in dealing with it in deliberative processes. The mathematical and statistical approaches to problem-solving involving probability theory are too recondite to find application in personal or official life. However, heuristic exploratory problem-solving with self-educating systems features such as feed-back, while familiar to science, can have a ready application to decision-making amid uncertainty. Unfortunately, human dialogue up to the level of intergovernmental deliberation and debate, faced with uncertainties, leads to 'leap into the dark' decisions or decisions to postpone decision-making, and little use is made of feed-back and other heuristic techniques, or of systems approaches to accelerate pragmatic, action-oriented proposals, resolutions and implementations in the world agenda.

Broader Problems:
Human contingency
Reduces:
Defeat
Reduced By:
Rigidity
Conflict
Related UN Sustainable Development Goals:
GOAL 3: Good Health and Well-being
Problem Type:
F: Fuzzy exceptional problems
Date of last update
13.11.2019 – 20:56 CET