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integrative concepts Cross-impact analysisDescription: This is a technique whereby the probability of occurrence of a number of different developments is given expression and the interrelationships between these probabilities are also established within a matrix. Through this network it becomes possible to link various developments and to describe systematically the impact of the realization of a given development on the probabilities of occurrence of other developments. The value of this technique to forecasting and assessment lies primarily in the link it provides between what might otherwise be rather disparate forecasting and assessment efforts. However this technique is only as good as the assignments of approximately correct probability values to the various matrix cells. |